NBER Working Paper 35427 · July 2026

Did Drug Decriminalization Increase Overdoses?

David Hall · Benjamin Hansen · Kyutaro Matsuzawa

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Figure 2 Panel A comparing actual overdose mortality in Oregon with its synthetic counterfactual from 2018 through 2023. — **Figure 2A. Oregon overdoses versus the synthetic counterfactual.** Actual overdose mortality closely tracks synthetic Oregon before Measure 110, then rises above it after treatment; the divergence becomes pronounced in 2022–2023. Estimated ATT: 0.806 monthly deaths per 100,000; randomization-inference p-value: 0.02. Source: paper, page 28.

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